Labor Market Lifts Rates
The major economic data released last week was a little stronger than expected overall. In particular, the labor market continued to perform well despite investor concerns. As a result, mortgage rates ended last week slightly higher.
June Jobs Beat Forecast
The key Employment report revealed that the economy added 147,000 jobs in June, above the consensus forecast of 110,000. Particular strength was seen in the government, health care, and construction sectors. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1%, the lowest level since February. Average hourly earnings were 3.7% higher than a year ago, down from an annual rate of 3.9% last month.
Job Openings Surge Again
Like the June Employment data, the latest JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover rates) report, covering the month of May, suggested unexpected strength in the labor market. At the end of May, there were 7.6 million job openings, well above the consensus forecast of 7.3 million and the most since November 2024. The ratio was about 1.1 openings for each available worker, down from a peak of over 2.0 in early 2022, and in line with the levels seen prior to the pandemic. A larger number of openings suggests that companies face more pressure to raise wages to hire enough workers.
ISM Reports Exceed Expectations
Two other significant economic reports released last week by the Institute of Supply Management also were a bit stronger than expected. The ISM national services sector index rose to 50.8, and the national manufacturing index increased to 49.0. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the sectors and below 50 a contraction. Service companies continue to outperform manufacturers, but higher tariffs on foreign goods may help narrow the gap over time.
Mortgage Rates for the week of 7-7-2025