Welcome to my March newsletter, with a look at how the latest jobs data, Fed signals, and geopolitical events are shaping mortgage rates and the Los Angeles housing market as we move through the first quarter of 2026.
Mortgage Rates, Fed & Geopolitics
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are starting March relatively stable. The 30‑year fixed had dipped under 6% late in February, but the Iran conflict, jump in oil prices, and stock market sell‑off have pushed Treasury yields and mortgage rates about 0.10%–0.15% higher in the last several days, putting many national 30‑year averages back in the low‑6% area and 15‑year loans in the mid‑5s.
ARMs remain attractive for qualified borrowers who want flexibility and expect another refinancing window if rates ease in the next 12-18 months.
After three cuts in 2025, the Fed is holding its policy rate steady and emphasizing a data‑dependent stance, and since key indicators like inflation and employment have remained stable, I feel it is unlikely the Fed will cut rates during their March meeting.
Here’s where local interest rates stand this week:
• 5.25% on 7YR jumbo ARMs up to $5M with full income documentation, depending on loan‑to‑value and credit.
• 5.5% on 10YR jumbo ARMs up to $5M with full documentation, again varying by structure and profile.
• Bank‑statement loans for self‑employed borrowers are generally still in the mid 6% range, reflecting the added underwriting complexity but giving buyers flexibility when tax returns don’t tell the whole income story.
Fannie/Freddie MBS Buying & Why It Still Matters
The administration’s plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy up to $200 billion in mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) remains an important tailwind behind the scenes.
The goal is to boost demand for mortgage bonds, narrow the gap between mortgage rates and Treasuries, and keep lenders from having to price in unusually wide risk premiums. While opinions differ on the exact impact, the direction is supportive: over time, this program can offset some of the upward pressure we see during weeks like this, and give lenders room to sharpen pricing on both conforming and jumbo products when volatility calms down.
The bottom line: policy is leaning toward supporting housing and credit, so your edge comes from picking the right loan structure—not from trying to time the exact bottom in rates.
February Jobs Report & Rate Implications
The latest U.S. jobs report shows a labor market that has clearly cooled but is by no means collapsing. Payrolls have softened, the unemployment rate is sitting in the mid‑4% range, and wage growth has downshifted from its earlier pace while remaining positive.
This is roughly the “slow‑cooling” mix the Fed has been aiming for: growth that’s no longer overheating, but solid enough to avoid a hard landing.
For mortgage borrowers, that backdrop—cooler jobs, moderating wages, and a Fed on hold still supports the idea that rates can gradually work lower over the course of 2026, even if we see bumps higher when events like the Iran conflict briefly push oil and inflation expectations up.
Los Angeles Housing: Cooler, Selective, Still Moving
The latest U.S. jobs report shows a labor market that has clearly cooled but is by no means collapsing. Payrolls have softened, the unemployment rate is sitting in the mid‑4% range, and wage growth has downshifted from its earlier pace while remaining positive.
Sellers are having to be more realistic on pricing and concessions, but the market is functioning: homes are selling, and financing is readily available.
We’re also seeing high‑profile coastal moves, including recent $100M‑plus Miami purchases by California billionaires like Larry Page and Mark Zuckerberg, widely viewed as positioning ahead of proposed billionaire‑tax changes, reminding everyone that wealth and capital remain very much in motion, even when local markets feel slower.
Recent Closed Loans by Cohen Financial Group
Home Purchase | Los Angeles | $3.4M
85% LTV Financing
30YR fixed, 10YR interest-only loan
6.875% interest rate | 7% APR
A high-leverage, self-employed borrower who did not qualify using tax returns secured financing by qualifying with bank statements instead. With strong underlying income, we structured the deal and closed in just 17 days.
Second Home Purchase | Newport Beach | $1.6M
80% LTV financing
7YR ARM loan
5.375% interest rate | 5.5% APR
We secured financing for a high-leverage borrower purchasing a second-home condo despite complex tax returns and multiple property holdings. Careful structuring and precise underwriting made the deal possible.
Home Purchase | Santa Monica | $6.7M
80% LTV financing
30YR fixed, 10YR interest-only loan
5.375% interest rate | 5.5% APR
With full income documentation and precise execution, we closed in 21 days and protected the borrower from significant deadline penalties.
Refinance | Palos Verdes | $6M
Cash-out refinance
5.75% interest rate | 5.875% APR
The borrower secured $4M in cash through a $6M refinance and closed in 30 days.
Doctor’s Loan | Mar Vista | $3.050M
90% LTV financing
10YR ARM loan
5.75% interest rate | 5.875% APR
Even without a history of income as a new medical group partner, and with significant student loan obligations, this borrower secured high-leverage financing in Mar Vista through careful income analysis and smart structuring
Please call us for cross collateralized and HELOC loans for new property purchases.
Key Housing & Policy Dates This Month
For clients and agents watching the calendar, several February dates will help shape the housing market conversation:
March 10 – Existing Home Sales
March 12 – Building Permits and Housing Starts
March 17 – Pending Home Sales
March 18 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
March 19 – New Home Sales
How I Can Help You This Month
As we move through March, we’re in a market shaped by three forces at once: a cooling but stable labor market, a Fed that is on hold but not tightening, and short‑term rate bumps tied to geopolitical headlines like the Iran conflict and the spike in oil. That mix rewards planning over guessing.
It’s a good time to:
•Get fully pre-approved so you can move quickly when the right property appears.
•Compare fixed‑rate and ARM options and decide how much rate risk you actually want to take.
•Revisit older higher‑rate loans from the 2022–2023 period to see if a refinance or cash‑out strategy still pencils, even with this week’s small backup in rates.
If you’d like updated rate quotes, detailed scenario analysis on a specific property, or a straightforward conversation about how these developments affect your plans, please reach out any time.
Sincerely,
Mark Cohen