Welcome to my September newsletter. Yesterday’s jobs report brought some genuinely encouraging news, and when you combine it with July’s inflation data and where the bond market is heading, the picture for mortgage rates is starting to look a little more defined than it did a month ago. Here is my read on where things stand.
Mortgage Rates September 2026
Nationally, mortgage rates edged higher again this week. According to Freddie Mac’s September 3 survey, the 30-year fixed averaged 6.71%, up from 6.66% the prior week, while the 15-year fixed came in at 6.04%. (See some of our best local rates below, which are more aggressively priced). The story behind that move is worth understanding, because it is a different story than the one we have been telling for the past several months.
The new factor is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 28. In his first appearance at Jackson Hole as Fed chairman, Warsh reiterated that returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% target is a firm and fixed commitment. Markets interpreted the speech as a signal that the default has changed: instead of needing bad economic data to trigger a rate hike, markets now feel they need good data to avoid one. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 4.80% in the days that followed, its highest level since 2023, before pulling back to around 4.78% as of Wednesday.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge was running at 3.7% annually as of Warsh’s remarks, well above the 2% target. Mortgage lenders have already started pricing in the possibility of a September rate hike, since when a hike looks likely, lenders tend to move ahead of the Fed’s decision. The September 11 inflation report for August is now the most critical data point of the year. A softer reading could meaningfully shift those odds and give rates some relief before the September 15-16 meeting.
Here is where local rates stand this week:
• 5.625% on 7-year jumbo ARMs up to $5M with full income documentation, depending on LTV and credit
• 5.875% on 10-year jumbo ARMs up to $5M with full documentation, varying by structure and profile
• Bank-statement loans for self-employed borrowers remain in the mid-to-high 6% range, depending on credit score and loan to value
• Lower rates available through a private banking relationship
Jobs, Inflation & What the Data Is Telling Us
Yesterday’s U.S. jobs report, delivered a genuine surprise to the upside. The economy added 162,000 jobs in August, more than triple the 12-month average of 31,000 and significantly ahead of the 55,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 3.1% year-over-year.
July’s inflation data showed consumer prices rose just 0.1% for the month, with annual inflation at 3.4%. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, came in at 2.5% year-over-year. That gap between headline and core is narrowing, which is meaningful. It suggests the economy is not generating broad inflationary pressure beyond energy costs, and that as energy stabilizes, the overall picture improves faster than people might expect.
Together, the strong jobs number and the softer inflation trend put the Fed in a genuinely difficult position heading into September 15-16. A strong labor market argues the economy can handle tighter policy. Cooling core inflation argues there is no need for it. That tension is exactly why the August CPI report next Friday is the most important single data point between now and the Fed’s decision.
Los Angeles Housing: Fewer Homes, More Motivated Sellers
According to Realtor.com’s July 2026 Los Angeles market report, the median list price is $1.1 million, down 4.5% from a year ago. Active listings stand at 19,865, down 1.5% year-over-year, even as national inventory grew 2.1% over the same period. Homes are taking a median of 52 days to sell, and 16% of listings have seen price cuts, a sign that sellers are adjusting to meet the market.
The opportunity right now is for buyers who are prepared and working with a lender who can move quickly when the right property appears.
Recently Closed Loans
Home Purchase | Brentwood | $9.1M
70% LTV financing
7YR ARM
5.75% interest rate | 5.69% APR
After the loan was declined by another major money center bank, CFG stepped in with more flexible underwriting and got the deal approved. The loan closed in just 14 days.
Home Purchase | Pasadena | $2.35M
90% LTV financing
7YR ARM
5.87% interest rate | 5.99% APR
We secured a physician loan with no PMI for a doctor entering a newly formed employment partnership. The bank was able to use forecasted income to qualify the borrower, even without a long history of earnings in the new role.
Home Purchase | San Mateo | $1.5M
65% LTV financing
5YR ARM
5.25% interest rate | 5.37% APR
Speed mattered on this transaction, and we delivered a 14-day close.
Home Purchase | Palos Verdes | $2.8M
80% LTV financing
5YR ARM
4.625% | 4.745% APR
A high DTI ratio would have limited options with many lenders. We secured financing through a lender willing to qualify at the ARM start rate and go up to 50% DTI and were able to obtain a rate under 5%.
Key Dates This Month
September 10: Core PPI and existing home sales report
September 11: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August (the single most important data point ahead of the Fed meeting; a soft reading would meaningfully reduce the chance of a rate hike)
September 16: Fed Interest Rate Decision (hold vs. hike; markets currently pricing this as a close call)
September 17: Pending Home Sales, Building Permits and Housing Starts report
September 24: New Home Sales report
How I Can Help
This fall, buyers are stepping into a real estate market with more inventory and sellers who are increasingly realistic on price. Economically, everything is a wait and see approach for the inflation numbers this Thursday and Friday.
Reach out any time for updated rate quotes, a scenario analysis on a specific property, or a straight conversation about how this market affects your plans.
Sincerely,