Welcome to my June newsletter, with a look at yesterday’s jobs report, this week’s data on job openings, what is happening in the bond market, and what all of it means for mortgage rates and the Fed’s upcoming June decision.
Mortgage Rates June 2026
Nationally, mortgage rates remain in the low to mid 6% range (see our preferred rates below) as the market works through a mixed set of signals. Yesterday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Employment Situation report. The economy added 172,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, the same level it has maintained since July 2025. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, a slight softening in wage growth compared to prior months.
The headline payroll number came in healthy, but revisions to prior months added another layer of strength to the picture. March was revised up by 29,000 to 214,000, and April was revised up by 64,000 to 179,000, meaning March and April combined were 93,000 stronger than initially reported. The underlying trend is more resilient than the monthly prints suggested.
A strong labor market is not the enemy for mortgage rates right now, and it is worth saying clearly. The Fed is not raising rates — it is holding steady. The pressure keeping mortgage rates elevated is coming from inflation and global uncertainty, particularly energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, not from job growth. A resilient economy is what keeps buyers qualified, sellers motivated, and the housing market transacting. That is a good thing.
On Tuesday, the BLS also released the April JOLTS report, which showed job openings surging to 7.6 million, the highest level in nearly two years and well above economist expectations of 6.88 million. That jump of 731,000 openings in a single month signals that employer demand for workers remains elevated even as actual hiring has cooled.
Here’s where local interest rates stand this week:
• 5.5% on 7YR jumbo ARMs up to $5M with full income documentation, depending on loan-to-value and credit
• 5.75% on 10-year jumbo ARMs up to $5M with full documentation, varying by structure and profile
• Bank-statement loans for self-employed borrowers remain generally in the mid to high 6% range, reflecting underwriting complexity while offering flexibility when tax returns do not capture the full income picture
Why Mortgage Rates Are Holding — And What Could Move Them
Mortgage rates are not driven by a single data point. Right now, they are the product of several competing forces operating at the same time.
The 10-year Treasury yield, the key benchmark for mortgage pricing, has been hovering in the 4.53% range this week, up roughly 12 basis points over the past month. That upward drift in yields has kept mortgage rates from falling, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have partially eased. Oil prices, while off their peak, remain elevated near $92–$96 per barrel, and that keeps inflation expectations higher than bond investors would prefer.
The Federal Reserve meets June 16–17 under new chair Kevin Warsh, who was confirmed after Jerome Powell stepped aside at the end of his term in May. The April FOMC minutes were clear: members agreed that inflation remains elevated, in part due to global energy prices, and that the Middle East conflict is contributing to significant uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% at the June meeting. With today’s solid jobs report adding to that picture, there is very little in the data to justify a cut in the near term.
The wild card for the summer remains the Iran conflict. When ceasefire signals have emerged, the bond market has responded quickly, pulling the 10-year yield lower and giving mortgage rates some breathing room. Oil peaked above $115 per barrel at the height of the conflict and has since pulled back to the low-to-mid $90s. That decline has already helped.
In my view, the clearest path back to a Fed rate cut runs through the oil market. Before the conflict, oil was trading in the $70–$75 range. At that level, energy costs were not a meaningful inflation driver, and the Fed had room to keep cutting. If and when oil works its way back toward those pre-conflict levels, the inflation picture changes, the Fed gets the cover it needs, and rate cuts become a real conversation again. That is the number I am watching. A sustained diplomatic resolution in the Middle East would be the most meaningful catalyst for lower rates in the second half of the year, more so than any single jobs or CPI report.
Southern California Housing: Strong Where It Counts
The Southern California real estate market is active, and the data backs it up. The regional median home price reached $900,000 in April, up 1.5% year-over-year according to the California Association of Realtors The market is active, with homes selling at or above asking price and the median time on market was down to 21 days in April.
On the Westside of Los Angeles, the market has been particularly resilient. The median sale price across the Westside sits at approximately $1.8 million, up roughly 7.5% year-over-year. In established neighborhoods like Brentwood, Santa Monica, West LA, and Westwood, well-priced homes continue to sell efficiently. What is sitting on the market are the listings where sellers are still anchored to yesterday’s valuations. Price it right, and this market responds.
Supply is improving, with Los Angeles County inventory running higher than a year ago, but structurally constrained by zoning limits, high construction costs, and the ongoing mortgage rate lock-in effect among existing homeowners. That inventory ceiling continues to support pricing for desirable, well-positioned properties.
The takeaway for buyers and agents: the market is not broken and it is not on fire. It is selective. The right property, at the right price, in the right location still moves and moves quickly. That is when having a lender who can perform on a tight timeline matters most.
Recently Closed Loans
Vacation Property | Resort Area | $17M
80% LTV financing
7 YR ARM interest-only
Full income documentation
5.67% interest rate | 5.79% APR
For this resort area vacation property, we secured a $13,600,000 loan and helped the borrower use $2M in deposits to obtain a private banking relationship rate. A strong example of the access and pricing advantage we can create.
Home Purchase | Hollywood Hills | $4.35M
80% LTV financing
Non-QM / Bank statement loan
7YR ARM interest only, 30YR fixed
6.50% interest rate | 6.62% APR
Major institutional banks declined this borrower because of inconsistent income. We pivoted to a bank statement solution and closed the home purchase in 21 days.
Home Purchase | Manhattan Beach | $6.2M
80% LTV financing
7YR ARM, interest-only
5.67% interest rate | 5.79% APR
The client wanted an interest-only loan with aggressive pricing on a $6.2M purchase. While most banks will not go above 80% LTV financing on loans over $3M, we got it done.
Investment Property | Mid-Wilshire | $2.7M
80% LTV financing
30YR fixed-rate loan, 10YR interest-only
6.75% interest rate | 6.87% APR
The clients wanted an interest-only DSCR loan for a non-owner-occupied duplex with 80% LTV financing. Despite the fact that most major banks will not offer that level of leverage on investment properties, we secured the financing.
Home Purchase | Los Angeles | $2.65M
90% LTV financing
Doctor loan
10YR ARM
5.90% interest rate | 6.02% APR
Through our doctor loan program, this borrower secured high-leverage financing with no PMI and closed in 21 days.
Key Housing & Policy Dates This Month
For clients and agents watching the calendar, several April dates will help shape the housing market conversation:
June 9 – Existing Home Sales
June 10 – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
June 16 – Building Permits, Housing Starts
June 17 – Pending Home Sales, Fed Interest Rate Decision
June 24 – New Home Sales
How I Can Help You This Month
We are in a rate environment shaped by a resilient labor market, a patient Fed, and geopolitical developments that can still move markets quickly in either direction. That combination rewards buyers and borrowers who are prepared to act when conditions align, not those waiting for the perfect headline.
It is a good time to:
•Get fully pre-approved and update the approval every 30 days so you can move immediately when the right property appears
•Compare fixed-rate and ARM options and decide how much rate risk you want to carry given the current range-bound environment
•Revisit higher-rate loans from 2022–2023 to see if a refinance or cash-out strategy still makes sense at current levels
I am grateful to be recognized as one of the top mortgage brokers in the U.S. this year by Scotsman Guide, National Mortgage News and HousingWire. It reflects the same approach I bring to every client relationship: clear advice, strong execution, and a focus on getting deals done. Cohen Financial Group is also proud to be named the official Greater Los Angeles lending partner for Elliman Capital, which services Douglas Elliman Real Estate.
If you would like updated rate quotes, a scenario analysis on a specific property, or a straightforward conversation about how these developments affect your plans, please reach out any time.
Sincerely,