Welcome to my July newsletter, where I bring you the latest mortgage rate trends, economic updates, and insights on the Los Angeles mortgage rates and housing market.
Mortgage Rate Update & Fed Outlook
Current Mortgage Rates & Projections
We’ve seen a modest but meaningful drop in traditional 30YR fixed rates, (see below for our aggressively priced, local rates on Jumbo ARMs). On June 1, the national average hovered around 6.91%. As of July 3, it’s down to 6.69%–6.73%. That’s a 15–20 basis point improvement, enough to matter for serious buyers, but not a huge game-changer. The move has been even more pronounced for 15YR rates, which have slipped from about 6.02% a month ago to 5.86%–5.96% today. That’s a clear signal that lenders are competing for the best borrowers, and it’s a window of opportunity for those who can swing the higher payments. Anyone waiting for a “big drop” in rates is going to have to wait for more softness in the jobs and inflation numbers. The incremental improvements we’ve seen are real, but the window for locking in a better deal is open now, not months from now.
Here’s a snapshot of current rates on our top loan products:
• 5.46% on 7YR jumbo ARMs up to $20M with verified income documentation and banking relationship.
• 5.54% on 10YR jumbo ARMs up to $10M with verified income documentation, no banking relationship required.
• Bank statement loan rates vary from the mid-6% to low 7% range, depending on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and creditworthiness.
Federal Reserve June Meeting & Future Policy Prediction
At its June 18 meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady, maintaining a cautious “wait and see” approach as it monitors inflation and labor market trends. While earlier speculation suggested a possible summer rate cut, the consensus now points to the first reduction coming later in the year, potentially in the fall, if inflation continues to moderate.
Jobs Report
June’s U.S. employment numbers surprised the experts; the economy added 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.1%. Wages are still climbing too, up 0.2% for the month and 3.7% over the past year. In other words, the job market isn’t falling off a cliff any time soon.
The latest JOLTS report backs this up: job openings are holding steady at 7.8 million, and there’s no big shake-up in hires, quits, or layoffs. Things have cooled off from the pace we saw a year or two ago, but this is still a strong market by any historical standard. For now, the labor market is giving the Fed every reason to stay patient on rate cuts.
California’s unemployment rate remains steady at 5.3%. While higher than the national number, California has experienced only a 0.1% increase in unemployment since April 2024.
Local Activity & Recent Transactions
The Los Angeles housing market continues to show resilience, though signs of a shift are emerging:
• Median sale price (June 2025): $876,067 (up 3.8% year-over-year)
• Inventory (June 2025): 4,854 homes for sale (up 9% from May)
• Sales volume (June 2025): 729 homes sold or pending (down 8.3% month-over-month)
• Market pace: Homes are spending more time on the market, with an average listing age of 34 days (up 30% year-over-year)
While prices remain elevated, increased inventory and slower sales suggest buyers have more options and negotiating power than in previous years.
Recent Closed Loans
Here are a few recent deals I have closed using my network of institutional and private lenders to get the deal over the finish line.
Recent Closed Loans
New Home Purchase | Manhattan Beach | $9.5M
70% LTV financing
7YR interest-only ARM
5.77% interest rate | 5.87% APR
HELOC Loan | Hancock Park | $3.5M
70% LTV financing
10YR interest-only for the draw period
6.85% interest rate | 6.95% APR
New Home Purchase | Westchester | $3.1M
90% LTV financing
10YR interest-only loan
6.0% interest rate for 10 yrs | 6.10% APR
No Impound, No PMI
Highest loan-to-value in the industry for doctors
National Housing & Economic Reports to Monitor in July:
July 18: Building Permits and Housing Starts
July 23: Existing Home Sales Data
July 24: New Home Sales Report
July 30: Fed Interest Rate Decision
California’s economy ranks as the 4th largest in the world, powered by diverse industries, a growing population, and a dynamic real estate market. Despite challenges, Southern California’s limited housing supply, high demand, and steady appreciation make property here a consistently strong investment. Whether you’re buying, selling, or refinancing, this market’s resilience and long-term growth potential are reasons to move with confidence.
If you’re ready to explore your options, I’m here to provide expert guidance tailored to your goals.
Mark Cohen