Welcome to my July newsletter. A lot has moved since last month. The Iran peace deal is signed, oil prices are falling, and the bond market is starting to price in a more constructive path for rates. Here is where things stand.
Mortgage Rates July 2026
The national 30-year fixed mortgage is averaging 6.49% as of Freddie Mac’s July 1st survey, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting around 4.49%. Rates have been range-bound between 6.30% and 6.60% for most of the past two months, but the direction of travel is beginning to shift.
The headline payroll number came in healthy, but revisions to prior months added another layer of strength to the picture. March was revised up by 29,000 to 214,000, and April was revised up by 64,000 to 179,000, meaning March and April combined were 93,000 stronger than initially reported. The underlying trend is more resilient than the monthly prints suggested.
Here is where my local rates stand this week:
• 5.5% on 7YR jumbo ARMs up to $5M with full income documentation, depending on LTV and credit.
• 5.75% on 10YR jumbo ARMs up to $5M with full documentation, varying by structure and profile.
• Bank-statement loans for self-employed borrowers remain generally in the mid to high 6% range, reflecting underwriting complexity while offering flexibility when tax returns do not capture the full income picture
The biggest economic development in the last few weeks is oil. The U.S. and Iran signed an interim peace framework on June 18, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has dropped from a peak above $115 per barrel to the high-$70s range. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent ending 2026 near $80, with Persian Gulf exports normalizing by the end of July. That matters because nearly all of the headline inflation driving rate pressure has been energy-related. June CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year, but core inflation stripped of food and energy was a more moderate 2.9%. If oil holds its current trajectory, that headline number follows.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its June 16–17 meeting, and the tone was notably hawkish. The dot plot removed any projected cut for 2026, and Fed Chair Warsh speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra this week said plainly that “prices are too high.” The next FOMC meeting is July 28–29. A hold on interest rate cuts is widely expected, but markets will be watching closely for any shift in tone now that oil is falling and the peace framework is in place.
In my view, the path back to rate cuts still runs through oil. Before the conflict, Brent was trading near $70–$75. At that level, inflation was contained and the Fed had room to move. If we get back there, the rate picture changes meaningfully. That is the number I am watching this summer.
Jobs & The Labor Market
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June Employment Situation on Thursday. The economy added 57,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate improved to 4.2%, the first decline since last summer. Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year-over-year.
The May JOLTS report, released Tuesday, showed job openings holding at 7.6 million with the quits rate steady at 1.9%, consistent with a labor market that is cooling but not cracking.
Worth noting: April was revised down 31,000 to 148,000 and May was revised down 43,000 to 129,000, meaning the two prior months combined were 74,000 weaker than initially reported. The trend is a slow, orderly softening, which is exactly the kind of backdrop that gives the Fed room to eventually ease, without forcing their hand.
Los Angeles Housing: Active Where It Counts
The Los Angeles market has a median list price of $1,165,000 and 12,247 active listings, essentially flat year-over-year at -0.66% (Realtor.com, June 2026). The median sold price is $1,048,500. Homes are taking a median of 52 days to sell, a modest increase from a year ago, which reflects a more measured pace of activity rather than a market in distress.
What these numbers tell me on the ground: supply is stable, pricing is adjusting, and the right deals are still getting done. In Westside neighborhoods like Brentwood, Santa Monica, and Westwood, well-priced properties continue to attract serious buyers. What sits are listings where sellers are anchored to 2024 peak expectations. The buyers I am talking to have more negotiating room than they have had in years, particularly on properties that have been sitting past the 45-day mark. That is an opportunity, not a warning sign. With rates showing early signs of improvement as oil prices fall, the second half of 2026 sets up well for buyers who are pre-approved and ready to move.
Recently Closed Loans
Home Purchase | Pacific Palisades | $3.45M
80% LTV financing
10YR interest-only loan
6.5% interest rate | 6.625% APR
The borrower came to us after a bank lender could not make the deal work based on tax returns. We secured the maximum leverage they wanted and delivered the financing their bank would not.
Second Trust Deed Loan | Hollywood Hills | $850K
70% LTV financing
30YR fixed-rate loan
7.75% interest rate | 7.875% APR
We secured a second trust deed loan in the Hollywood Hills using bank statements for qualification, allowing the borrower to access cash out without providing tax returns.
Home Purchase | Laguna Beach | $2.55M
85% LTV financing
30YR fixed, 10YR interest-only loan
6.75% interest rate | 6.875% APR
For this Laguna Beach transaction, we qualified a high-leverage borrower using 24 months of bank statements when tax returns did not support the deal.
Second Home Purchase | Santa Barbara | $2.4M
80% LTV financing
10YR ARM
5.875% interest rate | 6% APR
For this Santa Barbara second-home purchase, the borrower wanted to maximize leverage and qualified based on tax returns. We structured the financing to support the strategy they wanted.
Key Dates This Month for Real Estate & The Housing Market
July 9 – Existing Home Sales
July 17 – Building Permits & Housing Starts
July 29 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
How I Can Help
We may be approaching a turning point. The peace framework, falling oil, and a softening labor market are all pointing in the same direction. The question is not whether rates will eventually come down. It is whether you or your clients are positioned to act when conditions align.
Homebuyers should get fully pre-approved now, before any rate improvement pulls more buyers back into the market. Compare fixed-rate and ARM options given the real possibility of lower rates in the second half of the year. And if you are carrying a loan above 7% from 2022 or 2023, it is worth running the refinance math at current levels.
Happy Fourth of July. Reach out anytime for rate quotes, scenario analysis, or a straight conversation about how this market affects your plans.
Sincerely,