Welcome to my November newsletter, featuring the latest on mortgage rates, key economic developments, and a snapshot of the current Los Angeles housing market.
Mortgage Rate Update & Fed Outlook
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates for conforming fixed-rate loans in LA have stabilized in the high 5% to just under 6% range, still near the lowest since early 2023. Jumbo loans run roughly 0.25% to 0.375% higher. Adjustable-rate mortgages remain a solid option for buyers seeking flexibility in this environment. The market is pricing in another Fed rate cut, likely in December, following the Fed’s late-October decision to reduce rates despite some committee hesitation on inflation risks.
Here’s a snapshot of current rates on our top local loan products:
• 5.125% on 7YR jumbo ARMs up to $5M with verified income documentation.
• 5.25% on 10YR jumbo ARMs up to $5M with verified income documentation.
• Bank statement loan rates vary from the mid 6% to high 6% range, depending on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and creditworthiness. These loans are designed for self-employed people who can’t document their income with tax returns.
Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rate Outlook
A third rate cut in December is widely anticipated by myself, economists and market observers. The primary reasons supporting a December cut include a continued cooling in the labor market, persistent but moderating inflation at a 3% target, (which is higher than the 2% target) and risk management to safeguard the economic expansion amid ongoing uncertainty from delayed official data releases due to the government shutdown.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that a December cut is “far from a foregone conclusion,” many Fed officials and private economists (including Goldman Sachs and major brokerage firms) expect another 25 basis point cut to bring the funds rate closer to a neutral stance. This third cut aims to balance easing monetary policy enough to support jobs and growth without reigniting inflation pressures.
Jobs Report
Labor market momentum has cooled off considerably. Due to the extended government shutdown, limited federal data is available, but state-level jobless claims have stabilized, suggesting no drastic weakening in recent weeks. Most reports point to the U.S. unemployment rate holding around 4.3%, with hiring trending downward, a key factor supporting further Fed policy easing in the months ahead.
Local Activity & Recent Transactions
Local Activity
For October 2025, data shows continuity with September trends: Median sales prices held firm across much of the county, averaging near $1 million at some market tiers, while inventory continues its upward trend, providing buyers with more choices but keeping the market competitive. Days on market increased modestly but remain under two weeks for well-priced homes in prime locations.
I found this recent Zillow article interesting given all the noise this year around private listing networks and the popularity of off-market sales in Los Angeles, especially at the high end. Zillow’s research shows that sellers who skip listing on the MLS often leave significant money on the table – on average $30,000 less in California, because off-market listings limit buyer exposure and reduce competitive bidding. This insight is crucial for sellers looking to maximize their price in today’s market.
Recent Closed Loans
New Home Purchase | Hermosa Beach | $5.5M
60% LTV Financing
30YR fixed loan, 10YR interest-only
No Tax Returns
6.75% interest rate | 6.87% APR
We closed this $3M bank statement loan, completing a 10-day escrow start to finish. Every deadline was met — proof of our speed, efficiency, and precision under pressure.
New Home Purchase | Hancock Park | $3.149M
80% LTV Financing
7/1YR ARM
5.25% interest rate | 5.35% APR
We secured an equity line on the borrower’s home and used it for the 20% down payment, allowing the purchase to close without the borrower using any personal cash. A great example of our creativity and expertise in structuring complex deals.
Duplex Purchase | Mid-Wilshire | $1.1M
96.5% LTV Financing
30YR fixed FHA loan
5.5% interest rate | 5.62% APR
This first-time homebuyer purchased a duplex with only 3.5% down and closed in 24 days. A seamless, efficient process that turned homeownership into reality.
Cash-Out Refinance | Mid-Wilshire | $2M
65% LTV Financing
7/1 ARM
5.35% interest rate | 5.475% APR
This client needed immediate funds for taxes, and we made it happen with a $2M all-cash-out refinance, completed quickly and with precision.
National Housing & Economic Reports to Look for in November:
November 19: Building Permits
November 20: Existing Home Sales
November 25: Pending Home Sales Index
As we head into Thanksgiving, it’s important to pause and acknowledge the trust you place in Cohen Financial Group. Your confidence in us is not taken lightly. Thank you for your partnership and loyalty.
We’re committed to delivering clear, effective guidance that helps you capitalize on this evolving market now and into 2026.
For any questions or a straightforward conversation about your goals, reach out anytime.
Mark Cohen